The day may finally be here.
The United States Supreme Court this morning chose to allow same-sex marriages to proceed in five states.
Without comment, the justices let stand lower court rulings that allowed couples in five states to be married. Those cases had been on appeal, and it was widely expected that the Supreme Court would examine the constitutionality of those cases later this year.
Instead the court chose not to take that step. It gave no explanation for that decision. In effect, the justices said that whatever the appeals courts said about marriage equality is fine by them.
Couples in Virginia, Oklahoma and Utah can get married immediately. Indiana and Wisconsin will join them, possibly later today, once the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals lifts its stay. The appeals court had put a hold on the marriages until the Supreme Court could act. That stay will now be lifted. (In anticipation, some county clerks this afternoon already began issuing marriage applications.)
Within a few weeks, appeals courts in another six states—Colorado, Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia and Wyoming—probably will extend marriage equality based on their previous rulings in the cases that the Supreme Court chose not to hear. If that happens, same-sex marriages will be legal in 30 states and the District of Columbia.
Four other appeals court (the Fifth, Sixth, Ninth and Eleventh) are considering the constitutionality of same-sex marriage. The Ninth Circuit, based in San Francisco, almost certainly will allow marriage equality. That will bring Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Montana and Nevada into the fold.
Most of the remaining states are in the South and upper Plains states. The Fifth Circuit currently is reviewing a case in Texas and is getting one from Louisiana. The Sixth Circuit is looking at marriage laws in Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee. The Eleventh Circuit has a case in Florida.
The Eighth Circuit, covering states along the Mississippi River corridor from North Dakota to Arkansas, has yet to receive an appeal.
Today's events do not necessarily mean that same-sex marriage will become legal in all states. Nor do they mean that this is the final word from the Supreme Court. If any one of those remaining appeals courts bucks the trend, then the Supreme Court may have no alternative but to take up the issue.
And keep in mind: Four of the nine justices on the Supreme Court filed strong dissents in the Windsor case, the one that invalidated the federal Defense of Marriage Act last year and set in motion this trend among the courts in favor of marriage equality. If one of the liberal justices were to be replaced by a conservative, and a new appeal came before the court, the entire picture could change abruptly.
In short, today brought an incredibly big step in favor of marriage equality. But it may not be the final word.
